{"id":22617,"date":"2020-12-23T20:17:11","date_gmt":"2020-12-23T22:17:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www2.safras.com.br\/?p=22617"},"modified":"2020-12-23T20:17:11","modified_gmt":"2020-12-23T22:17:11","slug":"amid-volatility-the-year-2020-was-positive-for-coffee-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.novo.safras.com.br\/eng\/amid-volatility-the-year-2020-was-positive-for-coffee-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"\ufeffAmid volatility, the year 2020 was positive for coffee prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Amid\nvolatility, the year 2020 was positive for coffee prices<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The year 2020, which seemed\nendless, is finally coming to an end. Even with all the turbulence, the year was\npositive for the coffee market. On ICE US, coffee had many ups and downs,\nbut sustained a positive average performance, starting a recovery movement,\nafter a 2019 with very flattened prices. The beginning of the year was under\nstrong negative pressure due to the pandemic. Besides the bad financial context,\ncoffee was also sharply affected by the record crop reaped this year by Brazil. On the\nother hand, the shortage of milds and low certified stocks on ICE US\ncreated bullish bubbles over the year. The delay in the blossoming and the\npotential losses of Brazil\u2019s\n2021 crop ended up creating an environment of positive volatility and price\nrecovery. However, it should not be forgotten that twice in 2020 the second\nposition of arabica on ICE US\nwas traded below the level of 100 cents. It is a strong indication of selling\npressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar, another\nimportant variable for coffee in the composition of domestic physical prices,\nended up skyrocketing in the face of increased risk aversion with the\ncoronavirus pandemic. It is good to remember that the dollar started the year pegged\nat BRL 4.01 and set the year\u2019s high at BRL 5.97 in mid-May. It\nretreated and fell to BRL 4.84 to rise again and close the year possibly above\nthe level of BRL 5.00. This exchange rate fluctuation was decisive for the\nperformance of physical coffee prices over the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The FOB port differentials\n(bases), which started the year very firm, ended up falling with the physical\nadvance of Brazil\u2019s\n2020 crop and later partially recovered. The export price is still under\npressure from the record crop reaped this year by Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the composition\n\u201cICE + dollar + differential,\u201d the weight of the exchange rate prevailed. The\nresult of all this for the physical price was a first semester with price escalation,\ndriven by the very favorable exchange rate. In nominal terms, this same price\nlevel was again reached in September and now at the end of the year. However,\nin real terms, the purchasing power of a coffee bag was much greater in the\nfirst half (growers\u2019 profitability), since the exchange rate inflation still\nweighed little on the market. This explains the agitation of sellers in the\nfirst months of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the physical\nmarket, the best arabica cup stood out, especially cherry coffee. Fine cherry\nwas trading above BRL 700 a\nbag in September, driven by the lack of milds in the world. It is also\nimportant to mention the strong external flow of conillon. With the devalued\nreal, Brazilian conillon became cheaper in dollars, attracting foreign buyers,\nwho were looking for alternatives to the low supply from Vietnam and the delayed work in Indonesia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amid volatility, the year 2020 was positive for coffee prices The year 2020, which seemed endless, is finally coming to an end. Even with all the turbulence, the year was positive for the coffee market. On ICE US, coffee had many ups and downs, but sustained a positive average performance, starting a recovery movement, after [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":9048,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95,275],"tags":[103],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-22617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en","category-uncategorized-en","tag-coffee-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\ufeffAmid volatility, the year 2020 was positive for coffee prices - SAFRAS &amp; Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\ufeffAmid volatility, the year 2020 was positive for coffee prices - SAFRAS &amp; Market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Amid volatility, the year 2020 was positive for coffee prices The year 2020, which seemed endless, is finally coming to an end. Even with all the turbulence, the year was positive for the coffee market. 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