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Porto Alegre, December 22, 2020 – The\nBrazilian corn market has a month of December with the highest record of\nregional offers. This better selling intention by growers helps consumers to\nreplenish stocks for this period and, in some cases, for the beginning of\nJanuary. Of course, not everyone can take advantage of this moment of pressure\non corn prices to stretch stocks, also because of lack of space. However, we\nhave to reflect that this supply movement will end and encounter logistical\ndifficulties in February and March, at least, for the trade flow of corn at a\ntime of focus on soybeans. Basically, a discreet summer crop leads us to a\nsix-month trajectory of effort in domestic supply, in our analysis being\nnegative for the semester, which naturally leads us to imports. The question\nis: how to import corn amid the peak of the soybean harvest?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The weather in December has been much\nbetter for Brazilian crops. It was not yet possible to recover the best of soil\nmoisture conditions, but the rain returned in most regions, after a difficult\nspring in terms of rainfall and with losses of corn in the South region, and\nsoybeans in Mato Grosso. The crop is still in progress and delayed, still\ngenerating expectations with the weather in January and February in a good part\nof the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Corn crops are now developing well in the\ncenter-east of the South region, confirming the strong losses in the midwest of\nSanta Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. In the other states of the Center-South,\nthe picture of the summer corn crop is now quiet with good crop development but\nwith a later harvest. As soybeans also delayed the planting, the harvest will\nbe concentrated mainly in February and March. Owing to logistical issues, corn\nis likely to be reaped later, after the month of March in the Southeast and\nMidwest. This picture may have a major impact on corn prices mainly in the\nfirst quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the South region, the environment is of\nconfirmation of losses on the west side and renegotiation of contracts that\nwould have corn deliveries for January and February. These contracts will not\nbe fulfilled due to local crop losses. This will not be able to be compensated\nby the production of other locations of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.\nIn fact, much of the demand that would be concentrated in the west of these\nstates will eventually flow into purchases in other regions. For Paran\u00e1 and\nMato Grosso do Sul, it will be quite difficult in February and March to\ncontinue putting large volumes in other southern states due to the flow of\nsoybeans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The second corn crop planting will follow\nits normal schedule predicted for February and March. It will not be a date\ndesired by farmers, but the possible period in a year of late summer crops.\nWith soybeans being reaped later and in a concentrated manner, the question of\nlogistics will weigh on the flow of corn in the domestic market. The later\nplanting of the second crop may generate a speculative picture in the first\nsemester with the fall\/winter climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Argentina the situation is starting to\nworry. The planting is quite delayed and reached only 68% of the area planned\nfor this year, according to the government, which forecasts a planted area of\nover 9 million hectares for this year. However, the market does not seem to\naccept these government figures. The Buenos Aires exchange predicts an area of\n??6.3 million hectares, that is, very different from the one indicated by the\ngovernment. Planting, according to the Exchange, reached only 55% last week.\nSoil moisture conditions are not favorable at this time, with rain being\nconcentrated only in the north of the country and not in the core region, Santa\nF\u00e9, C\u00f3rdoba and Buenos Aires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Domestic sales in December reflected the\nfarmers and sellers’ need for emptying warehouses, making year-end cash, and\npreparing for the soybean harvest that will begin in February. This\nconcentrated selling pressure has helped domestic prices to settle down over\nthe past three weeks. The question now is the resumption of business in January\nand whether farmers and sellers in general are willing to exert the same\npressure of continuous sales as they have in recent weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There may be a strong resumption of\npurchases in January and a strong halt in sales as the soybean crop approaches.\nThe harvest of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina that generally supply the\nlocal market in January and February, it seems to us that they will not meet\n30% of the local demand in the period. S\u00e3o Paulo and Minas Gerais are unlikely\nto have summer crop offers in January, but in February the soybean harvest in\nS\u00e3o Paulo begins with concentrated logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazilian exports reached 33 million tons,\nbetween shipments made and those already scheduled for December and January.\nDecember has excellent shipments of 4.4 million tons. January has a schedule of\n460 thousand tons so far. The number is close to the estimate for the year, of\n34 million tons, and there seems to be no surprise as to the closure of the\nannual number for 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright 2020 –\nGrupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, December 22, 2020 – The Brazilian corn market has a month of December with the highest record of regional offers. This better selling intention by growers helps consumers to replenish stocks for this period and, in some cases, for the beginning of January. Of course, not everyone can take advantage of this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":22535,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-22534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n