This year\u2019s arabica productivity must\ncause severe stress on the plant and negatively affect the 2021 crop in its biennial\ncycle. Delayed blossoming, together with above-average temperatures and\nirregular rainfall in the post-blossoming period must substantially reinforce\nthe negative impact on next year\u2019s arabica production. The problems are\nwidespread, but the picture seems more drastic in the south of Minas Gerais,\nwhich accounts for 40% of the national arabica production, and signals a\npotential 35% decline. The preliminary idea is for a 30% decrease in the national\narabica production, which would bring production down to around 35.20 million\nbags. The expected increase in conillon production must help to alleviate the\nimpact of arabica losses. Even so, the potential for domestic production must\nremain at 57.10 million bags, which corresponds to a total decline of 18%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is an insufficient volume to meet demand. Considering an internal consumption of 24 million bags, an exportable surplus of only 33 million bags would remain. A clearer situation only from February or March 2021, when we will be able to validate or not these preliminary impressions. However, it is good to remember that the first months of the year are the period of graining, therefore, more regular and intense rain is needed. Meteorological models indicate below-average rainfall for most of the coffee belt during the first quarter of 2021, which may further aggravate this already worrying picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SAFRAS\nincreases Brazil\u2019s\n20 crop to 69.50 million bags<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The final result of Brazil\u2019s\n20\/21 arabica crop brought positive surprises. Production was above\nexpectations, which justifies the upward revision in Brazil\u2019s arabica crop, now\nprojected at 50.10 million bags, up 3.9% from the previous estimate, made at\nthe beginning of the season. The arabica gains ended up offsetting the losses with\nconillon. The Brazilian conillon output was revised to 19.40 million bags, down\n2.5% from the April forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In general terms, Brazil\u2019s 20\/21 coffee crop grew by 2%\nfrom the previous forecast and is currently projected at 69.50 million bags.\nCompared to the 19\/20 season, there was a 16% increase, expanding the scenario\nof a production record. Highlight on arabica, which rose 21%. Conillon, despite\nthe problems, still sustains a 7% gain. This production record supports the\nstrong external flow and the high volume of coffee still inside of warehouses in\nimportant growing regions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This year\u2019s arabica productivity must cause severe stress on the plant and negatively affect the 2021 crop in its biennial cycle. Delayed blossoming, together with above-average temperatures and irregular rainfall in the post-blossoming period must substantially reinforce the negative impact on next year\u2019s arabica production. The problems are widespread, but the picture seems more drastic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":9024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[103],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-22456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en","tag-coffee-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n