<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Porto Alegre, December 17, 2020 \u2013 The scenario for 2021 strongly depends on the behavior\nof China towards imports, as already discussed in the previous topic. Anyway,\nthe expectation is that China will keep operating in the market next year. The\nprocess of herd replenishment is apparently at an early stage and will require some\ntime for this to be reflected in the meat production. However, this is not the\nonly basis of the price curve for the beef industry next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another\nrelevant aspect is the process of replenishment of the Brazilian herd. The\nprice curve in the second half of 2019, and mainly in 2020, led farmers to invest\nin the herd, which is explained by the price behavior of the replenishment\nmarket, which also set a record level this year. This movement signals the\nretention of females. As we know, animal agriculture is a long cycle activity,\nand this retention process will be more visible from the second half of 2021 and\nwith even more emphasis in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As already mentioned,\nBrazilian slaughter in 2020 is at one of the lowest levels of the decade. The\nbottleneck in the production chain formed with the slaughter of matrices in\nmid-2017 is taking its toll, leading to a situation of strong supply\nrestriction at a time marked by excellent export demand. Brazil tends to\nslaughter approximately 31.95 million head of cattle in 2020, based on data\nfrom federal, state and municipal inspections, besides the use of IBGE data as\nreference. With these numbers, the expectation is that Brazil will produce\naround 8.67 million tons of beef. For 2021, these dynamics change, with the\ninitial process of replenishment of the Brazilian cattle herd. The trend is\nthat next year around 8.8 million tons of beef will be produced, an increase of\napproximately 1.7%, compared to the figures for 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Regarding\nexports, the expectation for the year is for a higher volume of beef shipments.\nFor 2021, these numbers tend to show improvement, with the Asian giant still\ndemanding significant volumes of animal protein. The expectation is that in\n2021 Brazil will export around 3.1 million tons of beef in carcass equivalent.\nIn the current year, the exported volume hits nearly 2.98 million tons of beef\nin carcass equivalent, an increase of approximately 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With these\nfigures, the internal supply of beef tends to reach 5.75 million tons, roughly 0.5%\nhigher. This volume indicates there will be no large supply surpluses in the\ndomestic market, keeping the prices of fattened cattle at a high level. It is\nalways important to mention that the market dynamics would be completely\ndifferent in the event of a change in China\u2019s purchasing profile, increasing\nthe domestic volume offered, resulting in an inevitable reversal of the price\ncurve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright\n2020 – Grupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, December 17, 2020 \u2013 The scenario for 2021 strongly depends on the behavior of China towards imports, as already discussed in the previous topic. Anyway, the expectation is that China will keep operating in the market next year. The process of herd replenishment is apparently at an early stage and will require […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":22381,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-22380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n