<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Porto Alegre, December 1, 2020 – The South\nAmerican 20\/21 corn crop had worrying weather forecasts for this spring\/summer\nin the face of expectations with La Nina. Rarely did a spring drought hit much\nof the center-south region of Brazil, with delayed or erratic rainfall.\nAccording to the planting profile of each region, the effects were severe or\nnot yet reflected in potential production. As most regions of Rio Grande do Sul\nand Santa Catarina have an earlier corn planting, in August and September, the\neffects of this weather picture have been severe and irreversible in these two\nstates and part of southwestern Paran\u00e1. The other regions of the country will\nenter the attention stage from now on, when crops will reach pollination and silking\nstages. The aggravating issue is that the rain is now starting to arrive late\nin the south of Brazil, which may still help the later crops but, strangely, there\nis a cut of rain forecast for December in other regions. Even with La Nina more\nthan confirmed in the Pacific, its climatic characteristics also begin to bring\ndistortions from the classic version. Crop losses in the South region bring a\nnew supply setup for the first half of next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazil\u2019s 2020\/21 corn crop begins\nwith significant and rare production losses. Spring losses are not common in\nSouth American crops. In general, the spring enables the planting and\ndevelopment, and the drier summer climate brings production problems. In 2020,\nthe climate cycle, perhaps due to the transition from the neutral phenomenon to\nLa Nina, brought a strong delay in the spring rain and aggravated the drought\nthat started in the regional winter. This delay in the spring rain generated\nproblems in a different way in all regions of Brazil, only delay and replanting\nin some locations, and irreversible losses in others. The only region that has been\nfully benefited so far is Matopiba, where the rain arrived earlier and in good volume,\nallowing a sooner-than-normal planting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The South region was fully\naffected in the context of the summer corn crop. The planting in these\nlocations begins in Miss\u00f5es, in Rio Grande do Sul, and extends to the west of Santa Catarina\nand southwest of Paran\u00e1 in August\/September. The other locations continue to\nplant in September\/October. These locations with earlier planting entered\nOctober with a good percentage in pollination and silking, and the others in\nNovember. The critical phase of crops was hard hit by a severe drought and two\nfrosts in Rio Grande do Sul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, taking into account the spotty\nrain that has fallen, the look of plantations even seems satisfactory. However,\ncorn has been with ears without kernels, failed to pollinate, and the losses are\ntotal in a large part of the midwestern section of the two most affected states,\nbesides the southwest of Paran\u00e1. Growers are reporting the impossibility of\nfulfilling the summer contracts with delivery in January\/February and trying to\nsell silage, but the crop conditions are bad even for silage. In some locations\nin the east of these states, there may still be some production despite the losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this way, production cuts\nare inevitable because even in regions such as Passo Fundo, N\u00e3o Me Toque,\nCarazinho, Vacaria, and Campos Novos the picture is of losses of 40 to 50% of\ncrops. In case of lack of rain, the losses could be accentuated. The absence of\nwater soil reserves is the central point, as it requires continuous rain, which\nhas not happened. For the last 30 days, rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul has reached\nonly 50 mm\nin the northeastern half of the state and 30 mm in the midwestern. In Santa Catarina,\ngood rain in the east, but only 50\n mm in the west. In Paran\u00e1, the same picture for the\nSouth\/east of the state and 50\n mm for the west and North.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At this point, in Paran\u00e1,\npart of the crops with the highest corn production are in this center-south,\nand therefore the corn losses in the state are still not so severe. However,\nDecember and January are critical months for crops, and attention continues.\nBetween Guarapuava and Cascavel, there are losses in potential productivity, and\nthe local data must be revised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In general, the summer crop in\nRio Grande do Sul now has losses of almost 48%, Santa Catarina nearly 20%, and\nParan\u00e1 14%. Naturally, new assessments will be made by the end of the crop to\ndefine the size of this year\u2019s production, and new cuts would not be a\nsurprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The other point is the\nSoutheast, a region with a significant volume of production in the summer crop.\nThe crop is delayed across the state of S\u00e3o Paulo. Some locations in Mogiana\nwill have soybean planting only from this week. In the south and Sorocabana,\nthis year\u2019s little summer corn was also planted with a strong delay. It is a\ncrop with a smaller area and that must enter the pollination and silking stages\nin December and January. It is a later crop, with a harvest cycle in February\/March\/April,\npossibly overlapping with the soybean harvest and logistics. The major concern\nis that a drier December is forecast for S\u00e3o Paulo and Minas Gerais, some\nmodels also show January, which would not be much in line with La Nina but, but\nis what the models are projecting today. Like in Rio Grande do Sul, dry weather\nin December and January could bring losses to the summer crops in S\u00e3o Paulo and\nMinas Gerais. There is some rain forecast for S\u00e3o Paulo this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Minas Gerais showed good rain\nin November, the planting progressed and, for now, it is normal, albeit a little\nlater. The question is really the development of crops from now on, since the planting\nwas carried out in much of the state. The planted area must have a\nsmaller-than-expected cut, reflecting the excellent price of this second\nsemester.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n In the Midwest region, the main\npoint of attention is Goi\u00e1s, since the other states of the bloc have very modest\nsummer corn areas. Goi\u00e1s recorded an excellent rainfall regime in November, in\nthe largest portion of the state, making it possible to advance the planting of\nsoybeans and, also, the little existing summer corn. Only in the southwest of\nthe state the rain regime made the planting feasible, but it has not yet left\nmoisture reserves, and the rain should continue. The same occurs throughout\nMato Grosso do Sul and western Mato Grosso.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In\nMatopiba, the rain arrived earlier than normal, the planting also started\nearlier in Maranh\u00e3o, Piau\u00ed and Bahia, which may enable an earlier than normal harvest\nof the summer crop and a better window for the local second season. The biggest\nconcern for this strip from S\u00e3o Paulo to Matopiba is over climate models, which\nbegin to point to below normal rain in December and January, a situation that, once confirmed, would be\ntroublesome for the summer production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, we reach the summer\ncrop with the lowest production at least for the last 40 years. The 19-million-ton\ncrop is unprecedented for the past forty seasons. This picture puts the 2021 crop\nunder pressure for a large production, as well as reveals the immense problem\npresent for the first semester of 2021 or until the harvest of the second corn\ncrop. The Brazilian crop is now being revised to 112.9 million tons, still a\nrecord, but below the levels originally forecast above 116 million tons. We\nwill still have several adjustments in this context of the national corn crop\nuntil its closure, with the summer scenario already advancing to a surprising\nloss of production in the spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rain also arrived in\nArgentina last week and with a good forecast for this early December. The planting,\nwhich is nearly 40% complete, may progress regularly in the coming few days in\nCordoba, Santa Fe, and Buenos Aires. Of course, the climate picture in Argentina\nwill remain in focus until March due to La Nina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright\n2020 – Grupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, December 1, 2020 – The South American 20\/21 corn crop had worrying weather forecasts for this spring\/summer in the face of expectations with La Nina. Rarely did a spring drought hit much of the center-south region of Brazil, with delayed or erratic rainfall. According to the planting profile of each region, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":18728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-21822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n