{"id":20576,"date":"2020-10-23T13:41:22","date_gmt":"2020-10-23T16:41:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www2.safras.com.br\/?p=20576"},"modified":"2020-10-23T13:41:22","modified_gmt":"2020-10-23T16:41:22","slug":"accelerated-external-flow-and-weak-differentials-in-coffee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.novo.safras.com.br\/eng\/accelerated-external-flow-and-weak-differentials-in-coffee\/","title":{"rendered":"\ufeffAccelerated external flow and weak differentials in coffee"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Accelerated external flow and weak differentials<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strong\nflow of world shipments ends up weighing negatively on the fundamental side,\nleaving the perception that supply remains comfortable. Brazil shipped 3.8\nmillion bags last September, according to Cecaf\u00e9. A record volume for the month\nof September. And exports should continue to speed up in the coming few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crowded\nwarehouses should guarantee this flow, as well as reinforce the idea of \u200b\u200ba\nhigher than initially expected crop. Some trading companies are estimating Brazil\u2019s\n2020 crop above 70 million bags (SAFRAS points to 68.9 million bags \u2013 beginning\nof the harvest).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The high\ndollar (by stimulating sales) and the higher-than-expected crop (by confirming\na record output) end up weighing against coffee prices. Both ICE U.S. and ICE\nEurope assimilate this scenario and increase the negative slope, especially in\nthe case of the ICE U.S. However, the most direct reflection is on the basis of\nBrazilian coffee export prices. FOB differentials traded in Brazilian ports\nhave increased slowly, offsetting very little the lows on ICE, well below\nexpectations. The result is a weaker differential, making Brazilian coffee relatively\ncheaper in the foreign market. The justification for this performance is the\npressure of physical supply availability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good cup\nwith screen 14\/16 coffee is trading at -26 against ICE U.S. (ICE at 104 cents).\nEven though the current export price is well above the level reached in early\nSeptember, when it exchanged hands at -40 cents against ICE U.S. (ICE above 135\ncents), it is still well below the average reference for the crop arrival between\n-20 and -21 cents. In comparison with the same period last year, the\ndepreciation of the export price is even more visible. In October 2019, the\ndescription was trading at the port of Santos at -12 cents against NY (ICE at around\n110 cents).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Accelerated external flow and weak differentials The strong flow of world shipments ends up weighing negatively on the fundamental side, leaving the perception that supply remains comfortable. Brazil shipped 3.8 million bags last September, according to Cecaf\u00e9. A record volume for the month of September. And exports should continue to speed up in the coming [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":9041,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[103],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-20576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en","tag-coffee-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\ufeffAccelerated external flow and weak differentials in coffee - SAFRAS &amp; Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\ufeffAccelerated external flow and weak differentials in coffee - SAFRAS &amp; Market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Accelerated external flow and weak differentials The strong flow of world shipments ends up weighing negatively on the fundamental side, leaving the perception that supply remains comfortable. Brazil shipped 3.8 million bags last September, according to Cecaf\u00e9. A record volume for the month of September. 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