Porto Alegre, September 8, 2020 – Record\nprices, consolidated upward movement, and excitement by Brazilian growers have\nnot yet been enough to change the planting intention for this 2020\/21 summer.\nIn fact, a large part of inputs are already purchased for soybeans, and growers\ndo not seem inclined to switch from soybeans to corn. However, switching from\ncorn to soybeans seems quite clear, also because of the prices that are being\ncharged for the new soybean crop, besides the media’s appraisal of the success\nof the commodity. Growers should once again plant a large soybean crop followed\nby a huge new corn’s second crop in 2021. Any reversal in the summer corn\nplanting scenario seems difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The update of the production for the\n2019\/20 crop shows a slight cut to 106.8 million tons. This reduction stemmed\nfrom the results of the final harvest in Paran\u00e1, Mato Grosso do Sul, S\u00e3o Paulo,\nand Minas Gerais in late August and early September. Owing to the drought in\nthe Brazilian fall, the second crop had losses in productivity potential, which\nare now being confirmed at the harvest. Small adjustments still need to be made\nuntil the end of the year, without strong structural changes in the final\nproduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The update on the planting trend for the\n2021 season also pointed to some minor changes and confirmations. The bias of\ncut in the summer area in some states that still have a satisfactory area to be\nreplaced was maintained and accentuated. In S\u00e3o Paulo, Goi\u00e1s, and Minas Gerais\n– states that still have a more considerable summer area and the opportunity to\ncarry out a summer planting with soybeans and the corn’s second crop – the cut\nin the summer corn was sharper. Growers are very inclined not to miss the\nopportunity of high profitability with soybeans and have the opportunity to\nplant the corn’s second crop. So, it is really difficult to observe an increase\nin the corn area. There are some chances through a different rotation with\nbeans in some areas, by first planting corn and then soybeans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the Midwest, even with high corn prices\nat this moment, it is very difficult to change one’s stance to the detriment of\nsoybeans. In the South, however, the increase in corn may be convincing more\ntraditional growers and with crop rotation to try to maintain areas with corn\nin the summer. In far western Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina, the\nplanting of premature corn with subsequent planting of soybeans have been a\nmodel that guarantees some maintenance of the area planted with corn. This does\nnot allow the return to the traditional model of soybeans in the summer and\nwheat in the winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rain in late August and early September in\nthe Southern region allowed the planting start in several locations. It is not\na level of comfortable moisture that guarantees a continuous profile for crops.\nIn Paran\u00e1, for example, the picture is of general drought and some planting\nstarted only in the far south of the state. September has been a dry month\nagain, and there is no forecast for good rain this month. Only Rio Grande do\nSul and Santa Catarina have slightly better conditions at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We must understand that the Brazilian\nspring begins with a drought started in the winter. There is no soil water\nreserve. As a result, summer crops will depend on regular rain from now on to\nmake the planting and crop development feasible. The weather models are\nsomewhat divergent, even amid Brazilian forecasters themselves. The transition\nfrom neutral weather to confirmation of La Nina seems to hinder weather\nforecasts or make them divergent. What there is actually is that La Nina begins\nto build on the cooling of Pacific waters on the coast of South America and its\ntrajectory brings a 2020\/21 crop in Brazil and Argentina with several potential\nrisk conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the corn\u2019s second crop is\nfinishing its harvest this week, the planting of the summer crop is advancing\nin the west of Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina. The weather, from now on,\nwill be fundamental for this planting pace, including premature soybeans, which\nwill allow or not a 2021 second crop planted within a good window. The\nexcitement of growers about the planting of the 2021 crop is as significant as\nthat of the summer soybeans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright\n2020 – Grupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, September 8, 2020 – Record prices, consolidated upward movement, and excitement by Brazilian growers have not yet been enough to change the planting intention for this 2020\/21 summer. In fact, a large part of inputs are already purchased for soybeans, and growers do not seem inclined to switch from soybeans to corn. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9099,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-18912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n