Porto Alegre, June 18th, 2024 – The June supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 12, did not bring any surprise to the market, having little impact on the CBOT futures contracts.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to hit 4.450 bln bushels in 2024/25, equivalent to 121.11 mln tons. Yield was projected at 52 bushels per acre. The numbers remained unchanged from May.
Ending stocks are projected at 455 mln bushels or 12.38 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 455 mln bushels. In May, the estimate was 445 bln bushels or 12.11 mln tons. For 2023/24, 350 mln bushels (9.53 mln tons) were forecast, against 340 mln bushels (9.25 mln tons) in May. The market had forecast 348 mln bushels (9.47 mln tons).
USDA repeated the crush estimate of 2.425 bln bushels (65.99 mln tons) in 2024/25. Export estimates remained at 1.825 bln bushels (49.67 mln tons).
Regarding the global picture, USDA projected a global soybean crop in 2024/25 of 422.26 mln tons, the same level as in May. For 2023/24, the forecast is 395.91 mln tons.
Final stocks for 2024/25 are estimated at 127.9 mln tons, above the market forecast of 127.8 mln tons and the estimate of 111.07 mln for 2023/24 – the market expected 110.8 mln.
For Brazilian production, USDA reduced the production estimate to 153 mln tons, against 154 mln in the previous report and 151.8 mln in the market forecast. The estimate for 2024/25 is 169 mln tons.
For Argentina, the forecast for 2023/24 was maintained at 50 mln tons, against market expectations of 49.8 mln. For 2024/25, the estimate is 51 mln tons.
Chinese imports in 2023/24 were estimated at 105 mln tons. For next season, the forecast is for a rise to 109 mln tons.
Copyright 2024 – Grupo CMA
