The coffee harvest in Brazil is advancing quickly, taking advantage of the dry climate. According to SAFRAS’ weekly monitoring, through June 18, 44% of the 24/25 crop had already been reaped, up 7% compared to the previous week. This advance is led by the conillon harvest. In the same period last year, the coffee harvest in Brazil was 39% complete, and the five-year average for the same period is 40%.
The conillon harvest accelerated significantly, given the dry climate and the current stage of crop maturation, and reached 62% of the potential production. Thus, work already exceeds the same period last year (56%) and the five-year average (59%). The harvest result is below expectations, which should result in a downward correction in the production estimate. The current idea is for a cut of 8% to 14% from the preliminary forecast, although some regions are already recording losses of up to 20% from the perspective seen before the start of the harvest. This scenario reinforces the internal picture of firm prices, as occurred overseas.
The arabica harvest has worked at a slower pace but is still well advanced compared to previous periods. 35% of the production potential have already been reaped, surpassing both the same time last year and the 5-year average, both at 31%. The smaller coffee bean size continues to be a great concern due to the difficulty in obtaining the screen 17/18, which explains the premium paid for larger coffee beans for exports. There are also growing rumors in the market about a possible negative correction in arabica numbers. Another point is that growers continue at a slower drying and processing procedure, leaving post-reaped coffee to rest for longer, which favors the cup quality but also explains the little coffee available in trading regions.
The weather is expected to remain dry in the coming few days in most coffee-producing regions, which should continue to favor the harvest and drying progress. Air moisture may increase slightly over the weekend and early next week, but there is no forecast of rain. Some chance of spotty rainfall in northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia. Temperatures should remain mild at least until the first week of July, when temperatures would begin to decline more sharply, but at first without any risk of frost.
